Evaluating the post-Dobbs landscape

Photo Credit: The US has about four million babies each year. (Photo by Bonnie Kittle on Unsplash)

It was two years ago that the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturned Roe v. Wade, shifting the discussion around abortion. The Trump–Biden Peace Plan looks to upgrade our social contract, and among its 101 policies are some related to abortion.

First, we must put the Dobbs decision in the correct context. The Supreme Court was able to make this ruling because Congress had failed—for more than 50 years—to enact a national policy protecting access to abortion. Congress let the Supreme Court invent it as a constitutional right and dictate policy to the states. Congress dropped the ball, and ultimately bears responsibility for the current upheaval.

Second, we must recognize the goal of those seeking to restrict abortion as wanting to reduce needless deaths—something everyone should support. The number of abortions fell by half since 1980, although it has ticked upward in recent years along with economic insecurity. Since two-thirds of women seeking abortion say that they can’t afford the baby, the first plank of the Trump–Biden Peace Plan (ending poverty) will address the primary cause.

Third, in the 21st century we must acknowledge that a total abortion ban is futile. Most abortions are pharmaceutical, and banning drugs does not work. Worse, the restrictions adopted by some states led to some horrific edge cases discussed below. Rather than try to cut off the supply of abortions, the American Union can write good public policy that drives down the demand for them.

The policy framework

The Trump–Biden Peace Plan is a legislative package offered to Congress in the 2024 election by the American Union of swing voters. It has three primary planks:

• End poverty with unconditional basic income, paid family leave, and healthcare reform;
• End mass incarceration with police, prison, and prosecutorial reforms; and
• End the endless wars with military downsizing and improving our moral standing on the world stage.

(Read a summary of the 101 policies, or the legislative text of the Trump–Biden Peace Plan here. Relevant sections noted in parentheses when applicable.)

A swing voter is someone willing to vote for both Republicans and Democrats. Because wedge issues like guns and abortions are used to keep the American people divided, the legislation contains a truce on these topics, where all sides give and receive concessions in exchange for leaving this compromise in place for 10 years. (Sections 201–222) More importantly, the larger package tackles root causes which will advance the goal of reducing needless deaths.

Restore access to abortion through viability

Section 204 restricts states from “impos[ing] an undue burden on the ability of a woman to choose whether or not to terminate a pregnancy before fetal viability,” or around 23 weeks. This is essentially the Roe doctrine—which 56% of registered voters support restoring—but crafted with legislative language instead of drawn from judicial cloth. States also couldn’t prohibit contraception or contraceptive care.

Post-viability abortion policy is left to the states, with three exceptions. (Sec. 204 (b)(3)) First, if the abortion is to protect “the life or health” of the woman, states can’t prohibit it. Including a health exception is important: A woman in Oklahoma was told to sit in the parking lot and wait until her complications became life-threatening. Only then would the hospital perform the medically necessary abortion.

Second, if “a lethal fetal abnormality makes it improbable that the infant would survive until their first birthday,” access to abortion would be protected. Doctors in Louisiana refused to abort a fetus missing the top of its skull, which the woman described as “I [would have] to carry my baby to bury my baby.” She eventually traveled to New York for the healthcare she needed.

Third, there is a limited exception for non-consensual pregnancies. The purpose is straightforward; basic fairness suggests a woman should have an opportunity to give or refuse consent to carrying a child. However, this post-viability exception is not a blank check, but a one-week window for a woman who learns of her pregnancy post-viability to make an informed decision.

The Comstock Act

In 1873, Congress did pass a national abortion policy: they prohibited the interstate transport of “any drug, medicine, article or thing designed, adapted, or intended for producing abortion.” While this was generally been irrelevant since Roe, in the post-Dobbs world it has become doubly relevant.

First, as most abortions are pharmaceutical, enforcement of this law could halt the mailing of “any drug [or] medicine” that is used. For women in states where access is reduced, this can be the only practical option to terminate an early-stage pregnancy. (Project 2025 proposes vigorous enforcement.)

Second, a strict reading of this law would ban the transport of any equipment related to “producing abortion.” (It should be noted that “abortion” is undefined.) With little legal protection for abortion on the national level, a zealous federal prosecutor could essentially shut down access to abortion nationwide.

Section 203 of the Trump–Biden Peace Plan would repeal the portions of the Comstock Act related to abortion, which two-thirds of Americans support doing.

The Hyde amendment

A few years after Roe, Congressman Henry Hyde brought forward a budget amendment that would prohibit the use of federal funds for abortion. It passed, and has been reattached every single year since. The Hyde amendment is not without controversy; Joe Biden campaigned on repealing it, and brought forward a budget that didn’t include it, although Congress did reattach it.

Section 202 of the Trump–Biden Peace Plan would codify the Hyde amendment. No federal funds could be used for abortion—a position with 58% support—with exceptions for the life of the mother, lethal fetal abnormalities, and rape or incest. Like Roe, it has been part of the status quo for decades, and including its codification within the truce would remove it as a point of conflict.

The 10-year truce

Section 221 establishes a Class B misdemeanor for members of Congress trying to amend these provisions, or enact further restrictions. The other half of the truce covers guns—universal background checks would be required for gun sales, which 86% of Americans support. The same protections for abortion access apply; no new restrictions on the “manufacture, sale, or possession of a firearm.” This section would sunset in 2034.

18 weeks of paid family leave

Separately, the Trump–Biden Peace Plan contains other provisions which will help drive down the demand for abortion. The first of these is paid family leave, which 80% of registered voters support enacting. (Sections 421–427)

The United States is one of the only countries on the planet that does not require paid maternal leave, and our infant mortality rate reflects that. One study found that 1 in 4 new mothers go back to work within two weeks of giving birth, even though studies find that paid maternal leave reduce infant mortality. (In 2021, the US’s rate was 60% higher than the European Union’s average, and has jumped in states like Texas that heavily restricted abortion.)

Funded by a 0.25% payroll tax on employees and employers, the Trump–Biden Peace Plan would provide paid family leave for major life events. Up to 18 weeks could be taken in a 12-month period, paid at 2/3rds of regular income. If we could bring the US’s infant mortality rate down to the EU’s, an estimated 7,700 newborns would reach their first birthday each year. Talk about needless deaths!

Unconditional basic income

A cornerstone of the Trump–Biden Peace Plan is the American Union Jobs Program, which serves as the umbrella of benefits for citizens. Unconditional basic income (UBI) of $16,800 for adults and $5,600 for children annually starts every American family above the poverty line, no strings attached. (Section 442) Ending poverty will reduce many current social problems and improve childhood outcomes.

(Read more: Everyone gets an American Union Job)

To further encourage pregnant women to choose life, the expectant mother would be able to opt-in to collecting the child’s monthly payment before they are born, on the condition that they will not seek any medically unnecessary abortion.

Conclusion

The United States can drive down the number of needless deaths from abortion and gun violence by addressing root causes like poverty. But to do so will require Congress to act, and the American Union of swing voters can help them succeed. If incumbents—Republicans and Democrats alike—enact it before the election, they can keep their jobs. If they refuse, their major party challengers can earn our bloc of votes, kicking incumbents out of power and out of office.

(Read more: Vote with radical love in 2024)

As a national union of swing voters, it only takes 3.5% to control the balance of power in Washington. With this leverage, we can collectively bargain across all 470 federal races for a better social contract—one that restores access to abortion. Join the American Union by donating 25¢ a day and making a good-faith pledge to vote together on November 5.