With gerrymandering reducing the number of competitive districts, the 2022 campaign is focused on 10 key states, each with a Senate race (five Republicans and five Democrats) and an average of two swing districts. By targeting a 3.5% voting block, the American Union can expect to control at least 6 Senate seats and more than a dozen House seats, enough to control the balance of power in Washington.
This leverage will enable us to shape the national conversation toward delivering real solutions for the marginalized millions. Please Volunteer and Donate so Congress will pass our legislative agenda in 2022, winning us all a better social contract.
Arizona was one of the swing states in the 2020 election. Its 11 electoral votes had gone to Donald Trump in 2016 before pivoting to Joe Biden. The states nine congressional districts shifted in favor of Republicans after redistricting, with Democratic incumbents in the 6th and 2nd districts finding themselves in Republican leaning districts. The 1st and 4th districts are also competitive, with the Republican and Democratic incumbents in districts which lean in their favor.
Democratic Senator Mark Kelly, who won a special election in 2020 with 51.2% of the vote, is up for reelection to a full term. More than a half dozen Republicans have filed in the race, which has an August 2nd primary. The state’s senior senator, Kyrsten Sinema, won her seat in 2018 after rounding lifted her to 50.0% of the vote.
While Connecticut is the least swingy state on this list, it does have two competitive House races along with the Senate race. The National Republican Congressional Committee has targeted the 2nd and 5th districts, which are currently held by Democrats. This will shrink the bloc of swing voters needed to control these seats.
Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal is running for a third term after winning decisively in 2016, and is likely to win again this year. An August 9 primary will determine his opponent.
Florida is another famous swing state, home to George W. Bush’s 537 vote victory in 2000. Its 28 House seats are expected to have 5-6 swing districts when redistricting is complete.
Republican Senator Marco Rubio is seeking reelection, having won a second term in 2016 with 52% of the vote. In 2018, Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson lost by 0.2% of the vote, but 3-term Congresswoman Val Demings, the presumptive Democratic 2022 nominee pending an August 23 primary, hopes to win a seat back for her party. By the end of 2021, she had raised more than $20 million, nearly $3.8 million more than the incumbent.
Georgia established itself as a swing state in 2020, with Democrats turning out in slightly greater margins to put the state in Joe Biden’s column, and then flipping two Senate seats in closely watched runoff elections. In 2022, redistricting has given Republicans an edge, leaving GA-2 as the only swing district among the 14 seats.
Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock is up for reelection in 2022; he won his seat with 51.0% of the vote in a January 2021 special election. More than a half dozen Republicans have filed to face off against him; the primary is May 24.
Iowa had the most competitive Congressional races in 2020, with three of their four current members winning with less than 53.5% of the vote. The 1st and 2nd congressional districts have a pair of freshmen Republicans who flipped the seats from Democratic control in 2020. Rep. Miller-Meeks won by only a handful of votes out of nearly 400,000 cast, while first district Rep. Hinson did better with 51.2%. In the 3rd district, Democratic Rep. Cynthia Axne is the dean of the delegation, winning her second term with 48.9% of the vote.
The incumbent senator is Republican Chuck Grassley, who has announced he will seek an eighth term. He would be the presumptive winner, never having received less than 60% of the vote in the past forty years, but in 2020, Republican Joni Ernst held her US Senate seat with just 51.7% of the vote. His Democratic challenger will be determined June 7.
Thanks to redistricting, Nevada is one of the most competitive states in the nation. Three of its four congressional districts, making up the lower half of the state, are all swing districts that favor their Democratic incumbents.
Likewise, Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is up for reelection, having won the seat with 47.1% of the vote in 2016. (Nevada allows voters to vote for “none of the above,” which 3.8% selected in 2016.) In 2018, Democrats picked up the other Senate seat when Jacky Rosen got 50.4% of the vote. The primary is June 14.
New Hampshire has been a swing state for decades, with 7,500 voters deciding Bush’s electoral college victory in the 2000 election. Over the last twenty years it has trended toward Democrats, who currently hold both senate seats and both congressional seats. District 1 is the more competitive of the two, and redistricting will determine if the 2nd still is. In 2020, Rep. Annie Kuster won reelection there with just 53.9% of the vote; in the 1st district, Rep. Chris Pappas received only 51.3%.
The incumbent senator is Democrat Maggie Hassan, a former governor who narrowly won her first term in 2016 after receiving 48.0% of the vote. A half dozen Republicans are competing to run against her; the primary is September 13. Third party candidates in the state have generally polled in the 3-4% range.
North Carolina has been a swing state in the last few presidential elections, with victories by each party, but never with more than 50.4%. After redistricting, the 13th district is competitive, followed by the 9th and possibly 11th district, where controversial incumbent Madison Cawthorne seeks reelection in a district that favors Republicans. The 1st district mirrors it in favor of Democrats, where an open seat has attracted a dozen candidates.
In 2020, Republican Senator Thom Tillis was reelected with a mere 48.7% of the vote. Senior senator and fellow Republican Richard Burr, who won with 51.1% of the vote in 2016, is retiring in 2022, and dozens of candidates are vying for his seat, with a primary to be held May 17.
Another political movement in North Carolina is the Poor People’s Campaign, which seeks to awaken the poor to their true political power in the tradition of Martin Luther King Jr. They share many goals with the American Union.
As another key swing state, Pennsylvania will be drawing extra attention in 2022 because of an open US Senate seat. After redistricting, several of the 17 House districts are competitive. On the western edge of Pittsburg, the 17th district has an open seat as current Congressman Conor Lamb seeks the Senate nomination. The 1st, 7th, and 8th districts, which all border New Jersey on their eastern edges, are all competitive as well, with a possible fifth district, the 10th, around Harrisburg.
The open Senate seat has attracted dozens of candidates in advance of the May 17th primary.
After the Governor vetoed the legislature’s proposed redistricting plan, the Supreme Court adopted a map that made as few changes as possible. The 1st and 3rd districts are competitive, with the 1st held by a Republican and the 3rd by a Democrat.
Republican Senator Ron Johnson is seeking a third term, breaking his self-imposed pledge of two terms. A dozen Democrats have lined up to compete against him in a state which Biden narrowly won in 2020; the primary is August 9.