By focusing the growth of the American Union in five states to start, a 3.5% block of swing voters could be decisive in as many as nine to 12 congressional districts, and 2% statewide could carry between three and five seats in the US Senate.
This leverage will enable us to shape the national conversation toward delivering real solutions for the marginalized millions. Please Volunteer and Donate so Congress will pass our legislative agenda in 2022, winning us all a better social contract.
Arizona was one of the swing states in the 2020 election. Its 11 electoral votes had gone to Donald Trump in 2016 before pivoting to Joe Biden. The state’s nine congressional districts remain split, with Democrats controlling five to the Republican’s four. The 6th district is competitive, with 5-term incumbent Rep. David Schweikert’s vote share shrinking election after election, down to 52.2% in 2020. This Republican seat is balanced by Democrat Rep. Tom O’Halleran, who was first elected to serve the 1st district in 2016, and just won reelection with 51.6%. A few other districts are potentially competitive, depending on redistricting.
Democratic Senator Mark Kelly, who won a special election in 2020 with 51.2% of the vote, is up for reelection to a full term. The state’s senior senator, Kyrsten Sinema, won her seat in 2018 after rounding lifted her to 50.0% of the vote.
Canvassing locations are northeast of Phoenix; the 6th district is the area around Loop 101 E through Scottsdale, and the 1st district includes the whole rural northeast corner of the state, down into Flagstaff and Show Low.
Iowa had the most competitive Congressional races in 2020, with three of their four current members winning with less than 53.5% of the vote. The first and second congressional districts have a pair of freshmen Republicans who flipped the seats from Democratic control in 2020. Rep. Miller-Meeks won by only a handful of votes out of nearly 400,000 cast, while first district Rep. Hinson did better with 51.2%. Democratic Rep. Cynthia Axne is the dean of the delegation, winning her second term with 48.9% of the vote.
The incumbent senator is Republican Chuck Grassley, who has held the seat for seven terms and has not yet announced if he will seek an eighth. He would be the presumptive winner, never having received less than 60% of the vote in the past forty years. In 2020, Republican Joni Ernst held her US Senate seat with just 51.7% of the vote, so a vacant seat would be competitive.
Canvassing and outreach should include the entire southern tier of the state along I-80, as well as Cedar Rapids and Dubuque.
Georgia established itself as a swing state in 2020, with Democrats turning out in slightly greater margins to put the state in Joe Biden’s column, and then flipping two Senate seats in closely watched runoff elections. The 16 members of their federal delegation are split equally between Republicans and Democrats, but many seats outside the Atlanta area are not competitive.
Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock is up for reelection in 2022; he won his seat with 51.0% of the vote in a January 2021 special election.
In the 7 th district, Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux won with 51.4% in 2020, and in the 6th
, Rep. Lucy McBath won reelection in a two-way race with 54.6%. Rep. Kwanza Hall won in the 5th district with 54.0% of the votes.
Canvassing locations in the Atlanta area include everything along I-85, starting around Hartfield-Jackson and continuing east through Buford (exit 115). The area also has many colleges.
New Hampshire has been a swing state for decades, with 7,500 voters deciding Bush’s electoral college victory in the 2000 election. Over the last twenty years it has trended toward Democrats, who currently hold both senate seats and both congressional seats. District 1 is generally competitive for Republicans, the second district is only slightly less so. In 2020, Rep. Annie Kuster won reelection with just 53.9% of the vote; in the first district, Rep. Chris Pappas received only 51.3%.
The incumbent senator is Democrat Maggie Hassan, a former governor who narrowly won her first term in 2016 after receiving 48.0% of the vote. Third party candidates in the state have generally polled in the 3-4% range.
Canvassing and outreach should be primarily in the first congressional district, from Manchester to Portsmouth. Other local opportunities post-pandemic will include 4th of July parades and fall fairs.
North Carolina has been a swing state in the last few presidential elections, with victories by each party, but never with more than 50.4%. The delegation to Washington is more lopsided, with Republicans holding 10 of the 15 offices as the state goes into redistricting.
In 2020, Republican Senator Thom Tillis was reelected with a mere 48.7% of the vote. Senior senator and fellow Republican Richard Burr, who won with 51.1% of the vote in 2016, is retiring in 2022. The open seat will generate competitive primaries in both parties.
As a result of the 2020 census, North Carolina will also be adding a 14th congressional district. Redistricting has been contentious in the past, but until more is known, the 8th and 9th districts are competitive and likely to remain so. Canvassing locations run from Fayetteville east to Salisbury, and due south to the state line.
Other potentially competitive districts are the 1st, which covers the Durham area and north along I-85, and the 11th, which freshman Republican Madison Cawthorne won in 2020 with 54.5% of the vote from the eastern point of the state.
Another political movement in North Carolina is the Poor People’s Campaign, which seeks to awaken the poor to their true political power in the tradition of Martin Luther King Jr. They share many goals with the American Union.